Sunday, February 08, 2009

Political Math and the Stimulus

The Media is giving the Republican Party a pass on its arguments against the ‘stimulus’ package. Instead of accepting the Republican arguments, the Media should look at the political math behind the Republican’s apparent push against the stimulus.

The political math shows that the Republican argument against the stimulus is a sham. Republicans have a laser focus on the 2010 elections and their approach to the stimulus is based almost entirely on regaining the majority in the Congress


There are basically two possible votes on the stimulus coupled with two possible outcomes of the package. The package will either succeed or fail. Republicans can either vote for it or against it. Thus, assuming Democrats for the stimulus, there are four possibilities for Republicans:




1. Vote for the stimulus : Stimulus succeeds

Result: Status quo. The entire Congress gets credit and the balance of power remains as it is.


2. Vote for the stimulus : Stimulus fails

Result: Status quo. The entire Congress gets blame and the balance of power remains as it is.


3. Vote against the stimulus : Stimulus succeeds

Result: Democrats pick up a few more seats. This is risky, but if it fails, the Republicans merely start campaigning for 2012.


4. Vote against the stimulus : Stimulus fails

Result: Republicans pick up seats. Enough to retake control?




Voting for the stimulus package cannot possibly help the Republicans regain control of the Congress. Thus the political math requires Republicans to vote against the package no matter what’s in it.

Please contact your favorite media outlet and ask them to cover the political math.

1 comment:

RockStories said...

The next step appears to be that, having voted against the stimulus, it will be in the best interests of Republicans to see it fail. That is, their interests will not be aligned with those of the country, but their goals will be best served by further crashing and burning of the U.S. economy.